Cairo/Washington - Many of the 20 million or so residents of the sprawling, frenetically crowded city of Cairo will stay home to watch US President Barack Obama's speech to the Muslim world on Thursday.

They will not have much choice. Obama will crisscross the city several times over his visit. If he travels by car, the already snarled city will be paralyzed - perhaps causing enough annoyance to cancel out whatever reconciliatory gestures he makes in the speech.

Asked about the coming visit, one Cairene stuck in rush-hour traffic with his car motor off - and this on a normal workday - said he planned to stay at home on Thursday to avoid the gridlock.

"All US presidents are the same," he said. "But Obama seems like he might be different. If he can really solve all the problems (former US president George W) Bush created, we'll happily empty the city so he can go wherever he likes."

Obama will face a sceptical crowd in Cairo. On the eve of his visit, many Egyptians say they appreciate the gesture, but that his administration must follow gestures with concrete policy changes to win their hearts and minds.

"Obama's visit will be useless without a concrete change in policy," said Mohammed Habib, deputy supreme guide of the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's largest opposition group. "The change Obama brings is in form, not in content."

Saying the United States and the European Union are not charity groups, Habib added: "They have their own agendas. We must depend on ourselves."

Obama is not likely to make any major policy announcements. The speech will touch on his hopes for peace between Israelis and Palestinians, but he is not using this visit to unveil a much- anticipated plan to get the peace process back on track.

Dennis McDonough, US deputy national security adviser, said the speech will be more about "changing the conversation" with the Arab world, continuing an outreach effort that began with Obama's first interview as president, which was given to Arab network al-Arabiya.

But US conservatives have derided Obama's effort as naive. Kim Holmes, a former US diplomat who now works for the Heritage Foundation, called it an "apology tour" that will fall on "deaf ears" in the region.

Ezzedine Choukri Fishere, a former Egyptian diplomat who teaches political science at the American University in Cairo, suggested the region was growing weary of the outreach effort.

"So far there have been nice words and warm hugs, but no action. I'm afraid that time is running out for the new president: the peoples of this region are quick to judge and it won't be long before they cast their verdict," he said.

Choukri said to truly alter the US image in the region, the Obama administration would have to "radically shift American policies on Arab-Israeli conflict, Iraq and Afghanistan" among other changes.

While Obama has recognized that securing peace between Israel and the Palestinians is critical to the region, most US experts agree that he is not about to change some of the long-standing policies that have made the US unpopular in the region.

"We're going to have to agree to disagree" on many issues, said Jon Alterman of the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. Instead, Obama should "frame US policy in a way that takes some of the passion out of widespread hostility to the United States."

Obama's planned visit has drawn vehement criticism from Egyptian opposition and human rights activists, who have said that Obama's choice of Cairo will legitimize President Hosny Mubarak's government. Some had urged him to choose Turkey or Indonesia for the speech.

"No one can legitimize regimes anymore, but Mubarak's is an ill- reputed regime," newspaper publisher Hisham Qassem said. "Obama risks discrediting himself by speaking here."

US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton apparently tried to head off such criticism by meeting with Egyptian pro-democracy activists in Washington last week. The White House has also left open the possibility that Obama will meet with some political activists during his trip.

Hani Shukrallah, a member of the editorial board of Cairo's newest independent daily, al-Shuruq, dismissed the objections. The root of the United States' problems with the Muslim world lies in its relations with Arab countries, he argued, and so the address must be delivered from the Arab world.

"All Arab countries are dictatorships. There is no real democracy in the Arab world. If the venue is going to be an Arab country, then it should be Egypt, the cultural and ideological heart of the Arab world."

Shukrallah credited the Obama administration's "quieter, less confrontational approach" for securing dissident Saad Eddin Ibrahim's acquittal last week on charges of "tarnishing Egypt's image abroad" and for securing the February release of Ayman Nour, who spent four years in prison after running against Mubarak in the 2005 presidential elections.

"But the real test," he said, "will be the way Obama deals with the Palestinian issue, whether he will bow to Israeli pressure ... or whether he will put his foot down." (dpa)