Global emissions from fossil fuel consumption will likely never reach 2019 levels: Research

Global emissions from fossil fuel consumption will likely never reach 2019 levels: Research

Emissions from the fuel consumption fell by around 10 per cent in 2020 as a result of the corona virus pandemic, and they will never reach 2019 levels again even if they rise again with gradual economic recovery, a research undertaken by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) indicated.

According to the research report, global emissions from fuel consumption most probably peaked or hit its highest level last year as demand for power from the energy sector fell due to corona virus pandemic-related restrictions.

From the year of 2027, carbon emissions are estimated to fall at a rate of 0.7 per cent per year to 2050, thanks to continuing rise in the production and consumption of green energy, such as solar and wind power. The researchers underlined that the rise in solar and wind power led to increase in uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) and enhanced energy efficiency across industries.

Together, solar and wind energy will account for more than half (56 per cent) of global electricity generation by the year of 2050. Power generated using coal is projected to peak in China in 2027 and India in 2030. It may be noted here that China and India are the world’s two most populous countries, with massive dependence on fossil fuels.

Global demand for oil is expected to peak in the year of 2035. Then, it will start falling by 0.7 per cent year-on-year to slip back to 2018 levels by 2050.

Although the transition in terms of production and consumption of energy has continued to progress in the recent past, the decline in demand for energy triggered by the deadly corona virus pandemic has severely affected the trajectory.

Even then, the report cautioned that the world is set to experience an increase of 3.3 degree Celsius in temperature by the end of current century, which far exceeds scientists’ average limit of below 2 degree Celsius. Matthias Kimmel, a senior analyst at BNEF, explained that the world would need to decrease emissions by 6 per cent every year starting now to contain global warming well below the agreed 2 degrees Celsius rise.

Commenting on the findings, Kimmel said, “To stay well below two degrees of global temperature rise, we would need to reduce emissions by 6% every year starting now, and to limit the warming to 1.5C, emissions would have to fall by 10% per year.”

The report titled “'New Energy Outlook Report” also predicted that gas will be the only form of energy that will continue to keep growing in the future, by around 0.5 per cent every year.